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The Supervision Blog

Providing insights on supervising Europe’s biggest banks

The Supervision Blog is where ECB staff and Supervisory Board members offer insights into the workings of the banking sector, incorporating data, analysis and research.

20 January 2025

Why prudent projections are the backbone of sound stress testing

Stress tests are of crucial importance to assess banks’ resilience under adverse economic conditions. In previous stress tests, however, some banks submitted overly optimistic projections. Despite thorough quality assurance by supervisors, this behaviour makes it more likely that the risks some banks face are underestimated. To address this, we are now taking a closer look at insufficiently prudent projection submissions. In line with our supervisory focus on banks’ risk data aggregation and reporting capabilities, we are also looking more closely at poor data quality issues in stress tests.

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